[2019-04]

Precursors of demise? Structural changes in terrorist group alliances

Choi, Hyeseung

Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, KAIST

Yang, Jae-Suk

Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, KAIST

Abstract:
This study explores structural aspects of terrorist group alliances and how they signal the
impending demise of terrorist groups. Employing network analysis, we examine the relation
between terrorist group longevity and the structure of terrorist group alliances. We use dyadic
data of joint attacks conducted by terrorist groups between 2001 and 2016 to analyze how the
structural properties of terrorist networks increase the probability of a group dismantling.
Also, we observe structural abnormalities that may signal the impending demise of terrorist
groups. The results of our empirical analysis show that broker groups are more likely to be
dissolved, and that the frequency of joint attacks by allied groups influences the probability
of a group disbanding. Furthermore, we demonstrate an increase in allies’ attacks as the
demise of a given terrorist group approaches. Moreover, our qualitative analysis reveals that
years before terrorist groups dissolve, sudden peaks in structural attributes become evident.